Market Commentary, October 2026
OCTOBER 2026
Ross McKnight, a senior member of our research team, joins Tracy Coghill to answer your questions from recent weeks. These include what’s driving central banks to keep increasing interest rates, whether higher government debt is a cause for concern, and emerging trends in AI.
The commentary is available to watch as a video, or you can read the transcript below.
Tracy Coghill: Since we last spoke, what has been happening from an investment perspective right now?
Ross McKnight: It's certainly been a busy few months, but encouragingly we've seen a lot of the major themes that markets were worried about begin to settle. While there are always risks on the horizon, we're moving into the final part of the year with a clearer picture than we had earlier in 2026.
Markets have become increasingly focused on politics, but it's important to remember that companies ultimately create value through growing earnings, generating cash and rewarding shareholders. While political events can move markets in the short term, they rarely change those underlying fundamentals overnight.
At the portfolio level, we're comfortable with where we're positioned and believe we're well prepared for a range of outcomes.
Tracy Coghill: The UK Budget is attracting a lot of attention. What are your expectations?
Ross McKnight: There's no doubt there will be plenty of commentary in the run-up to the Budget. The Chancellor faces the ongoing challenge of balancing public finances while supporting economic growth, and there are continuing calls for additional revenue-raising measures.
However, when we speak to economists and market strategists, the broad view is that this Budget is unlikely to result in the sort of dramatic policy announcements that create significant market disruption. In fact, compared with some of the fiscal events we've experienced over the last few years, we expect this to be a relatively contained affair.
That's important because markets tend to react most strongly to surprises. If expectations are broadly understood and changes are incremental, the impact on investors is often far less significant than headlines may suggest.
Tracy Coghill: Does the UK's economic outlook have a significant bearing on client portfolios?
Ross McKnight: Less than many people assume.
One of the advantages of investing in global businesses is that their fortunes aren't solely tied to the domestic economy. Many of the companies we own generate the majority of their revenues overseas, and in some cases only a small proportion comes from the UK.
Across the portfolio, approximately 70% of revenues are generated outside the UK. That means many of these businesses are benefiting from trends in North America, Asia and other international markets rather than relying entirely on UK consumer spending or economic growth. As investors, we want exposure to businesses with diverse revenue streams, global customer bases and resilient earnings. Those characteristics can help reduce the impact of country-specific challenges.
Tracy Coghill: What role is politics likely to play in markets over the remainder of 2026?
Ross McKnight: Politics is becoming one of the dominant themes for investors as we move through the final quarter of the year.
In the UK, attention is focused on the Budget. In the US, investors are preparing for the midterm elections. Meanwhile, across Europe, we've seen ongoing political developments and election-related uncertainty that continue to generate headlines.
Whenever markets face major political events, investors naturally begin assessing the potential implications for taxation, spending, regulation and economic growth. That can lead to periods of volatility as sentiment shifts and expectations are reassessed.
Importantly, volatility itself isn't unusual. Political uncertainty has always been part of investing, and markets have historically adapted to changing governments, policies and political priorities.
Tracy Coghill: With so many political events taking place at once, should investors be worried?
Ross McKnight: Not necessarily.
Political developments can create short-term uncertainty, but uncertainty doesn't automatically translate into poor investment outcomes. Markets have a tendency to price in known risks well before the event itself takes place.
One of the biggest mistakes investors can make is becoming overly reactive to daily headlines. The reality is that markets are constantly discounting new information, and long-term investment returns are typically driven by company fundamentals rather than political soundbites.
We've built portfolios with the expectation that there will be periods of uncertainty. That's not something we're trying to avoid entirely; it's something we're planning for.
Tracy Coghill: How are portfolios positioned to deal with that uncertainty?
Ross McKnight: Diversification remains one of our most important tools.
We hold a range of asset classes because different investments tend to behave differently under different economic conditions. Having exposure to multiple sources of return helps reduce reliance on any single market outcome.
Alongside diversification, we're very focused on valuation. Many of the businesses we own are trading on more attractive valuations than the broader market. This gives us what we would describe as a "margin of safety" because we're not paying excessive prices for future growth expectations.
When investors overpay for assets, disappointment can be costly. By maintaining discipline on valuations, we believe we're putting ourselves in a stronger position should markets experience periods of volatility.
Tracy Coghill: Income has become increasingly important to investors. How does that feature in your outlook?
Ross McKnight: It's a very important component.
One of the attractions of current markets is that investors are once again being rewarded for owning income-producing assets. Whether through dividend-paying equities or fixed-income investments, there are meaningful yields available across a number of asset classes.
Those income streams can provide a valuable cushion during periods when capital growth is more challenging. They also contribute significantly to total returns over time.
In an environment where economic growth may be more moderate and markets remain sensitive to political developments, having investments that generate consistent income can be particularly attractive.
Tracy Coghill: What's the biggest risk investors should avoid as we head towards year-end?
Ross McKnight: Allowing short-term headlines to drive long-term decisions.
The news cycle naturally focuses on what's happening today, whether that's political developments, election polling, fiscal announcements or concerns about economic growth. While those events matter, they're often far less important to long-term investment outcomes than investors initially believe.
Maintaining discipline through periods of uncertainty is one of the most valuable things an investor can do. Markets will always face challenges, but successful investing has never been about predicting every headline. It's about owning quality assets, remaining diversified and staying focused on long-term objectives.
Tracy Coghill: Finally, what's your key message for clients as we move into the final months of 2026?
Ross McKnight: The message is one of cautious optimism.
Yes, there are plenty of political events on the horizon and there will almost certainly be periods of market volatility as a result. But volatility and uncertainty are normal features of investing, not reasons to abandon a long-term plan.
We remain comfortable with current portfolio positioning, encouraged by the valuation opportunities available across markets and supported by attractive levels of income generation.
While the headlines may continue to feel noisy, our focus remains on identifying quality investments, maintaining diversification and helping clients navigate whatever the months ahead may bring. That's ultimately what drives successful outcomes over the long term.